Session Three: On Uncertainty
Prepared by Nicole Carter, MSW, RSW
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Intolerance of Uncertainty
What Does it Mean to be Uncomfortable with Uncertainty?
While we all vary in terms of how much uncertainty we feel comfortable within our lives, those of us who worry a lot can sometimes find ourselves to be more “intolerant of uncertainty” than those who worry less. Of course, uncertainty is something most of us dislike to some extent as we tend to feel more secure and confident the more control we have in any given situation. However, too much intolerance of uncertainty can play a big role in the etiology and maintenance of worry, create unnecessary feelings of anxiety and fear, and behaviours that can become exhausting. Tolerating uncertainty more can help reduce our worry, manage our feelings of anxiety better and improve our sleep, among other things.
Embracing Uncertainty
Learning to embrace uncertainty and loosen our control on outcomes can be quite liberating, and can certainly be helpful in reducing anxiety. In fact, some of the most enjoyable things in life are based on tolerating uncertainty: novels, films, board and card games, love and romance, and so much more!
“Uncertainty can be exciting. Known negative outcomes could eliminate risk, romance, wonder, and joy.”
Uncertainty as an Unavoidable Part of Life
As uncomfortable and at times scary as it can be to admit, uncertainty is an unavoidable and unpreventable part of life. COVID-19 is certainly a good example of this, as very few of us would have ever predicted that in March 2020 the world would be locked down, sports cancelled, makeshift hospitals built, and a pandemic raging across the globe.
Because uncertainty is so uncomfortable for many of us, engaging in behaviours to try to increase our feelings of certainty makes sense. But is uncertainty really something that we have control over? Is it truly possible to attain certainty in our life? Many argue no, and I have to agree with them.
Instead, it can be helpful to build our tolerance to uncertainty – especially during times of increased stress. When it comes to intolerance of uncertainty, we have two options - but only one is actually possible and/or arguably effective. Can you guess which one that is from the diagram below?
If you guessed option one, you are correct.
Increasing our Tolerance of Uncertainty by Challenging Ourselves
Exposing Yourself to Uncertain Situations
Someone struggling with an intolerance of uncertainty might decide to generate a few experiments to try to become more comfortable with uncertainty. We sometimes call this a “fear and avoidance ladder” or hierarchy, and the experiments are usually engaged gradually from easiest to hardest. It can be helpful to work with a therapist to generate your own hierarchy and start by trying some of them out with the support and guidance of your therapist. The following are examples of exposure items aimed at increasing comfort with uncertainty, rated in order of difficulty (10 being the hardest):
Making your Brain Bored of a Previously Anxiety-Provoking Stimulus
How Shifting Our Behaviours Reduces Anxiety
Over time, with repeated practice of experiments like the above, we typically see anxiety levels go down and more comfort with uncertainty. Consider what might happen if you watch a scary movie once, and then 50 times: your arousal will be much lower on the 50th viewing. The information in our brain that once made us afraid or worried eventually becomes bored and stops bothering us so much.
Just like watching a scary movie multiple times, tolerating uncertainty will become more and more comfortable with repeated practice that is frequent, spaced close together, and completed gradually. Below is an example of how these experiments might look over time.
Shifting Our Thinking
As mentioned in the previous two sessions, shifting how you think can change how you feel and behave. If we think “as if” we are tolerant of uncertainty, we can start to feel more comfortable with it and experience less anxiety and worry as a result. Consider the following questions:
Is it truly possible to control the outcome of an event?
How often have I been right in the past when I have predicted a disaster?
What could I do to cope if the worst-case scenario did happen?
What are at least three other possible outcomes?
What is the most likely case scenario?
What can I do about this right now?
If the feared outcome does occur, how will I feel about this in two years? Ten years?
Self-help Exercises
Behaving “as if”. Consider trying to think and behave “as if” you were tolerant of uncertainty this week. Ask yourself, “If I was tolerant of uncertainty, how would I be thinking? What would I be doing?”
Generate a list of experiments that nurture comfort with uncertainty. Consider trying to gradually reduce behaviours that nurture an intolerance of uncertainty, such as excessive research, high expectations of yourself or others, procrastination, perfectionism, avoidance, seeking reassurance from others or the internet, checking behaviours, or excessive screen time. Make a list of behaviours you engage in to avoid uncertainty, rating them in terms of how difficult it would be to start reducing them. Choose one behaviour each week to focus on, starting with the easiest for you, paying attention to your level of distress and anxiety.
Changing the way we behave can have a direct impact on our feelings, thoughts, and how we understand the world - sometimes quite quickly, and most times gradually over time. Feelings can take awhile to catch up to our changed behaviour patterns - for example, if you quit smoking, chances are you won’t experience changes in your feelings right away. If you decide to consciously change some of your behaviour patterns with the intent to reduce anxiety and it doesn’t happen right away, try not to become discouraged - it can often take time. In his book, Atomic Habits, author James Clear uses the example of a melting ice cube to describe these subtle changes that occur outside of our awareness. Although ice melts only when it hits 32 degrees Fahrenheit, this doesn’t mean that there wasn’t any energy exerted to raise the temperature of ice from say, 24 to 31 degrees. While you may only see the ice melting when it hits 32 degrees , the ice would not have melted at all had the work not been done to raise the temperature in the first place.
Challenging our usual behaviours: Behaving “as if” we are tolerant of uncertainty
Shifting how we act in relation to uncertainty can impact how much worry we experience and how anxious we feel. When we begin to act “as if” we are tolerant of uncertainty, we start to feel more comfortable with it and can experience less anxiety and worry as a result.
There are two ways to shift our behaviours in order to become more comfortable with uncertainty:
Increase our exposure to uncertain situations, instead of avoiding them or trying to resist them
Cut down on any behaviours that try to reduce uncertainty in our lives
Refrain from checking the menu online before visiting a new restaurant (10)
Experiment with not making a list of to-do items for the day and instead rely on memory (8)
Delegate a task that I usually like to do to my partner without providing instructions (8)
Go for a walk without any distractions like my phone or AirPods (7)
Don’t re-read my email before sending it to my boss (6)
Stop checking my son’s temperature at night to make sure he isn’t sick (5)
Don’t ask my loved ones for their opinions about a decision I have to make (4)
Order an item of clothing online without deliberating about it (2)
Before making behavioural changes, we might be used to experiencing a high level of anxiety quickly, and with a behaviour aimed at reducing distress, the anxiety comes down quite quickly.
After deciding to experiment with reducing a behaviour or exposing to an uncertain situation, our anxiety might be slightly higher and come down at a slower pace. However, with increased practice and trials, our anxiety begins to come down and fizzle out quicker than before.